Covid-19 Virus: The Indian Variant
Since late February 2021, the first cases of the variant were detected in countries other than India including the United Kingdom, the United States, and Singapore. British scientists at Public Health England redesignated the B.1.617.2 variant on 7 May 2021 as a "variant of concern" (VOC-21APR-02) as a result of flagged evidence that it spreads more rapidly than the original version of the virus.
Transmission rates for the Indian strain have been put at anywhere between 30 and 100% higher than for the Kent or Alpha variant.
Roughly 12% of contacts of people with the Indian variant went on to develop coronavirus, compared with 8% of those who had the so-called Kent variant, according to Public Health England analysis - suggesting it is roughly 50% more transmissible.
Mask wearing and social distancing declined, and large public gatherings, including political rallies and religious festivals, were allowed to continue virtually unabated, creating a prime environment for the virus to spread so quickly it was better described as a tsunami than a wave.
It took just a few weeks for an "uptick" in cases to surge past the country's previous national record of 100,000 daily infections. A month later, it had surpassed 400,000 daily infections and 4,000 deaths.
Bangladesh had officially announced the detection of the Indian coronavirus variant on May 8, days before the country went into Eid holiday when a large number of people traveled between districts, especially from Dhaka to other parts of the country.
Health experts feared that large public movements and gatherings might trigger a fresh wave of Covid infections, especially after holidaymakers returned.
The Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) has found evidence of community transmission of the Indian variant, lately named as Delta variant by World Health Organization (WHO), in the country.
The IEDCR along with an NGO Foundation and Institute for Developing Science and Health Initiatives (ideSHi) conducted genome sequencing of 50 samples collected from Covid patients after May 16.
Of the 50 samples, 80% of them (40 samples) were carrying the Indian variant while 16% of them were carrying Beta or South African variant, says the government’s disease control agency.
They say if the B.1.617, known as the Indian variant, can make its way into other areas from the bordering districts, Bangladesh is likely to witness more than 20,000 cases a day in early July, raising the fatality rate sharply.
Although the country's average Covid positivity rate was 8.15 percent on Monday, it was very high in different districts along the Indian border.
Chapainawabganj was the worst-hit district with a 55 percent infection rate, forcing the local administration to enforce a 7-day strict lockdown.
The positivity rate was over 40 percent in Rajshahi.
The infection rate was also high in some other border districts like Satkhira, Jashore, Jhenaidah, Dinajpur, Meherpur, Chuadanga, Sylhet, and Moulvibazar.
Lack of necessary oxygen supply and other healthcare facilities may aggravate the situation, according to the experts.
They suggested putting these districts, particularly where the virus infection rate has already gone up, under strict lockdowns like Chapainawabganj and halting inter-district public transport services to contain the virus locally.
They also said the government should take adequate preparations in advance to face any grim situation like India and Nepal by increasing the number of hospital beds, treatment facilities, equipment, setting up field hospitals, and finding out potential sources for collecting necessary oxygen supplies.
Talking to UNB, Dr. Abu Jamil Faisel, a member of the modeling group, said they have submitted their projection to the DGHS on May 12 with some suggestions to control the situation.
He said they think Bangladesh may see over 10,000 cases a day at the end of June and it may continue to increase later if the virus outbreak cannot be controlled in bordering districts. "Many trucks carrying mangoes are coming to Dhaka and other parts of the country from Rajshahi, Chapainawabganj and other adjoining districts. So, it will be difficult to control the spread of the upsurge of the Indian variant."
Dr Be-Nazir said if the country records over 10,000 cases for some weeks it will be difficult to control the situation as it does not have sufficient hospital beds, oxygen production, ICUs, doctors, nurses and other facilities and equipment to take care of such a huge number of patients.
He said the oxygen demand was nearly 210 tonnes a day when Bangladesh reported over 7,000 cases for a few days in April. "So, when cases will cross 20,000, we'll need at least 600 tonnes of oxygen a day to treat the Covid-19 patients. So, oxygen will be a major worry for Bangladesh if virus cases rise like in India. We'll also face lack of oxygen concentrators, high-flow nasal cannulas, oxygen masks, general and ICU beds, and other necessary equipment".
Despite this mayhem in the nation and potential aggravation of the volatile situation, a solution has to be introduced to deflect the outcomes. As Dr. Be-Nazir said, "We should first make our efforts to control the virus in the areas where it has already started spreading so that it can't reach other parts of the country. We must keep the border shut with strict monitoring until the situation gets normal in India."
He said the government should immediately make projections of some potential Covid-19 scenarios and get ready to tackle them.
"For example, if the government makes a projection that the cases may go up to 10,000 at the end of June, then it should work out plans about how to manage it. Now we mainly have the Dhaka-centric covid management system. We can distribute it and prepare the Upazila, district, and divisional hospitals to tackle the situation,'' said Dr. Be-Nazir.
He said oxygen, high-flow nasal cannula oxygen concentrators should be there at the district hospital and central oxygen and sufficient ICU beds can be ensured at the divisional hospitals so that 95 percent of patients get treatment in their divisions or districts.
The government should determine the oxygen demand if the situation becomes worse and take steps from now on to meet it by importing oxygen and increasing local production, he added saying that "The government should now contact the countries from where it can import the oxygen when it is needed."
Dr. Faisel said the government should now focus on the bordering areas and increase Covid-19 tests and start contact tracing extensively there to control the outbreak of the Indian variant.